Fired for Winning

The folks at Whatifsports.com are on a bit of a hot streak. Through their magical simulations they predicted the Boston Celtics would win the NBA Championship in 6 games over the Lakers, the Red Wings would beat the Penguins before the playoffs started, and that Kansas would beat Memphis for the NCAA championship on Selection Sunday. Pretty good.

Of course they have now run the Phils and Rays through their simulation 10,001 times - and the result is…

PHILS WIN! At a less than stellar 51.2% of the time, but I’ll freakin’ take it.

Here are some fun facts from their simulation:

• The most likely outcome is a Phillies win in seven games at 16.6% of the time. The Rays in six (16.4%), Phillies in five (15.0%) and Rays in seven (14.9%) are also fairly likely.

• Chase Utley is the most likely WS MVP, averaging 1.5 HR, 4.6 RBI and 4.0 R. He is followed by Evan Longoria (1.5 HR, 4.7 RBI, 3.7 R) and Cole Hamels (0.9 W, 3.45 ERA, 13.0 IP, 13.2 K)

• The Phillies win 58.2% of Cole Hamels’ starts, including 54.2% of the time in Game 1 and 62.9% of the time at home in Game 5.

• In the example series on the site, the Phillies win Games 1 (13-4), 4 (7-3), 6 (6-2) and 7 (5-3). Jayson Werth wins the MVP and Brad Lidge earns the Game 7 save (after blowing Game 2) by striking out the side.